nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ dolphins week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
1-2
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph
10
MIADolphins
0-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
7
3
10
30
Dolphins
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

LAC logo
-14.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
390
233
Total Plays
65
47
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.22
Passing Yards
311
161
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.69
-0.20
Rushing Yards
79
72
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
62%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.17
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-0.94
-6.45
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
89
53
Penalty EPA
-11.28
-6.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.7%
Model87.1%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+14.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-296
Home nfelo
1,247
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+87.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
-74.0
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
-332.0
Model Spread
+14.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
12/02
5.3
82
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
12/30
-3.8
23
01/06
-0.1
46
01/13
0.4
49
09/08
3.1
72
09/15
-1.1
45
09/22
1.0
60
J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Value
Ptile
10/28
-2.2
32
11/11
-9.4
5
11/18
-5.8
14
11/25
-5.5
15
12/02
-4.6
20
12/09
-4.8
19
12/16
-13.9
1
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
-8.9
6
09/22
-7.1
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
25
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
18
32
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
18
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
P
O
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-19
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
O
12/23
-10
L
L
U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U