LACChargers
1-2
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph
10
MIADolphins
0-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
7
3
10
30
Dolphins
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-14.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
233
Total Plays
65
47
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.22
Passing Yards
311
161
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.69
-0.20
Rushing Yards
79
72
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
62%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.17
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-0.94
-6.45
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
89
53
Penalty EPA
-11.28
-6.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.7%
Model87.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-302
Home nfelo
1,246
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+86.1
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.1
Net QB Adjustment
-74.0
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
-341.2
Model Spread
+14.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
25
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
18
32
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U