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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ dolphins week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-2
29
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
4 mph
27
MIADolphins
1-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
3
14
6
29
Dolphins
7
6
0
14
27

Spread

MIA logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
403
341
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
263
204
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
140
137
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
29%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-6.87
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-9
Sack EPA
-0.75
-3.91
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-7.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
-43.2
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
12/28
7.9
92
01/05
10.1
96
01/11
-11.8
1
09/05
6.8
91
09/15
2.9
72
09/21
-3.7
25
09/28
-5.0
17
10/05
-0.5
46
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
11/24
8.0
93
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.6
67
09/07
-9.1
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.1
50
09/29
3.5
76
10/05
4.1
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
11
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
15
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
O
01/11
-20
L
L
O
09/05
6
W
W
O
09/15
11
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O