LACChargers
3-2
29
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
4 mph
27
MIADolphins
1-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
3
14
6
29
Dolphins
7
6
0
14
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
341
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
263
204
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
140
137
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
29%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-6.87
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-9
Sack EPA
-0.75
-3.91
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-7.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
+9.9
Final Difference
-44.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
29
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U