LACChargers
4-3
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
6
20
Falcons
10
0
7
0
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
315
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
114
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.39
Rushing Yards
91
201
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.16
-8.15
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.99
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+29.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U