nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ falcons week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
4-3
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
17
ATLFalcons
4-4
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
6
20
Falcons
10
0
7
0
17

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
336
315
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
114
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.39
Rushing Yards
91
201
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.16
-8.15
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.99
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+29.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
12/26
2.0
68
01/02
4.5
82
01/09
-0.5
49
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80
09/25
-0.9
46
10/02
5.6
87
10/09
1.9
68
10/17
-1.2
45
10/23
1.7
65
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/06
-5.2
19
10/13
-14.3
1
09/11
6.4
90
09/18
-3.4
26
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
-8.0
6
10/09
-2.5
32
10/16
6.6
91
10/23
-2.5
32
10/30
2.8
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Chargers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Falcons logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
8
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
O
01/09
-3
L
L
O
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U
09/25
-28
L
L
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/09
2
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-14
L
P
U
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/11
-1
L
W
O
09/18
-4
L
W
O
09/25
4
W
W
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
-18
L
L
O
10/30
3
W
L
O