LACChargers
7-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
013
ATLFalcons
6-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
6
2
0
11
Falcons
7
0
6
0
13
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
189
350
Total Plays
47
77
Yards / Play
4.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.20
Passing Yards
133
234
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.30
Rushing Yards
56
116
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-17.98
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-19
-11
Sack EPA
-5.73
-1.35
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
33
--
Penalty EPA
-6.84
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.8
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
19
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
25
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
4
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U