LACChargers
7-3
6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
9 mph
35
JAXJaguars
5-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
3
0
0
6
Jaguars
7
7
7
14
35
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
135
345
Total Plays
45
69
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.17
Passing Yards
93
--
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.83
+0.11
Rushing Yards
42
192
Rush Attempts
16
47
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
30
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-4.69
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-6.12
--
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-9.79
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+22.9
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.4
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
24
4
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U