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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jaguars week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
7-3
6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
9 mph
35
JAXJaguars
5-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
3
0
0
6
Jaguars
7
7
7
14
35

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
135
345
Total Plays
45
69
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.17
Passing Yards
93
--
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.83
+0.11
Rushing Yards
42
192
Rush Attempts
16
47
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
8
30
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-4.69
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-6.12
--
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-9.79
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.0
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
09/05
6.8
91
09/15
2.9
72
09/21
-3.7
25
09/28
-5.0
17
10/05
-0.5
46
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
12/01
-7.2
8
09/07
-2.2
35
09/14
-0.5
46
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.5
55
10/06
5.0
84
10/12
-2.6
32
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.7
63
11/09
-4.7
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1

EPA

EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
8
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
14
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
10
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/05
6
W
W
O
09/15
11
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-3
L
W
O
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O