LACChargers
4-8
45
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
7 mph
10
JAXJaguars
4-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
17
14
7
45
Jaguars
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
525
252
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
9.1
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.59
-0.12
Passing Yards
330
164
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
4.3
EPA / Pass
+1.02
-0.29
Rushing Yards
195
88
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
75%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-1.30
-2.92
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
65
101
Penalty EPA
-1.28
-10.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
-31.3
Home QB Adjustment
-47.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-47.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U