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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jaguars week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-8
45
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
7 mph
10
JAXJaguars
4-8
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
62°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
17
14
7
45
Jaguars
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

LAC logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
525
252
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
9.1
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.59
-0.12
Passing Yards
330
164
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
4.3
EPA / Pass
+1.02
-0.29
Rushing Yards
195
88
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
75%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-1.30
-2.92
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
65
101
Penalty EPA
-1.28
-10.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
-31.3
Home QB Adjustment
-47.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.0
60
09/29
4.9
83
10/06
-3.2
30
10/13
0.3
54
10/20
5.1
84
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.6
57
11/07
-12.0
2
11/18
-6.9
12
12/01
0.2
53
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.8
58
09/19
4.2
80
09/29
-3.5
28
10/06
6.8
89
10/13
-9.0
6
10/20
-1.9
39
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-5.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28

EPA

EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
17
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
31
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
20
W
W
U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
P
O
10/27
1
W
W
U
11/03
15
W
W
U
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
13
W
W
U
09/29
2
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-20
L
L
O
11/24
-22
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
U