LACChargers
1-0
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
013
DETLions
0-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
0
0
10
Lions
6
0
0
7
13
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
339
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.11
Passing Yards
287
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.16
Rushing Yards
137
94
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.27
-6.71
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.22
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
70
71
Penalty EPA
-2.76
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+108.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+30.9
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+29.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
25
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Lions Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
12
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U