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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ lions week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-0
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
13
DETLions
0-0
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
0
0
10
Lions
6
0
0
7
13

Spread

DET logo
+1

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
424
339
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.11
Passing Yards
287
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.16
Rushing Yards
137
94
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.27
-6.71
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.22
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
70
71
Penalty EPA
-2.76
-6.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+109.8
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+31.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+20.5
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
11/18
1.5
57
11/25
6.6
88
12/02
5.3
82
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
12/30
-3.8
23
01/06
-0.1
46
01/13
0.4
49
09/08
3.1
72
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17
11/18
-0.3
44
11/22
-2.6
31
12/02
-5.2
17
12/09
-3.6
24
12/16
4.1
75
12/23
-4.4
21
12/30
2.1
62
09/08
6.4
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense
Chargers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
25
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Lions Offense vs Chargers Defense
Lions logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
12
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
35
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
P
O
DET logo

Lions

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/16
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-18
L
L
U
12/30
31
W
W
U
09/08
0
T
L
O