nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ panthers week 14, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
5-7
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
6 mph
28
CARPanthers
4-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
37°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
9
0
16
Panthers
10
13
3
0
26

Spread

CAR logo
-1

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
278
272
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
4.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.06
Passing Yards
220
146
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
10/27(37%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.29
Rushing Yards
58
126
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.99
-5.35
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-12.85
-3.69
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-6.90
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.9
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
11/27
3.9
77
12/04
-2.7
28
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
11/27
-0.5
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Chargers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7

EPA

EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
27
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Panthers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Panthers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
14
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
11
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
-7
L
L
P
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-33
L
L
O