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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ patriots week 17, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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How nfelo works

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  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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LAC logo
LACChargers
9-6
40
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph
7
NEPatriots
3-12
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
13
10
10
40
Patriots
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

LAC logo
-6

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
428
181
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
5.6
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
85
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.72
Rushing Yards
147
96
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
29
11
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
59%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.57
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-11.43
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
60
Penalty EPA
-9.25
-6.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,376
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+59.6
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-20.0
Final Difference
-129.1
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
10/21
0.8
54
10/27
4.7
79
11/03
-0.6
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.6
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.0
41
10/20
3.1
71
10/27
-0.3
47
11/03
1.1
57
11/10
-1.1
41
11/17
3.5
73
11/24
-3.8
23
12/01
1.4
59
12/15
1.1
56
12/22
3.2
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
19
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
25
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
30
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-2
L
L
U
10/27
18
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-20
L
L
O
10/20
-16
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
W
O
11/03
-3
L
P
U
11/10
16
W
W
U
11/17
-6
L
L
O
11/24
-19
L
L
O
12/01
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-13
L
L
O
12/22
-3
L
W
U