LACChargers
9-6
40
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph
7
NEPatriots
3-12
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
13
10
10
40
Patriots
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
181
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
5.6
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
85
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.72
Rushing Yards
147
96
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
11
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
59%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.57
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-11.43
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
60
Penalty EPA
-9.25
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-17.3
Final Difference
-126.3
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U