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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
9-7
32
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
35
OAKRaiders
9-7
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
15
3
32
Raiders
10
7
3
9
6
35

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
442
346
Total Plays
89
75
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
357
172
Comp/Att
34/65(52%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.14
Rushing Yards
85
174
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
27
24
Passing 1st downs
20
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
22%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.65
+5.56
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-28
-18
Sack EPA
-5.83
-3.87
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
108
38
Penalty EPA
-11.75
-5.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
10/31
-5.2
18
11/07
11.9
98
11/14
-2.6
34
11/21
13.7
99
11/28
0.9
60
12/05
6.5
89
12/12
5.6
86
12/16
2.3
69
12/26
2.0
68
01/02
4.5
82
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
10/24
7.2
91
11/07
-1.4
42
11/14
0.7
58
11/21
-3.2
29
11/25
3.5
78
12/05
0.3
55
12/12
-2.1
37
12/20
-1.3
43
12/26
-1.4
43
01/02
-1.9
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
15

EPA

EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
16
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
28
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
29
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/14
-7
L
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
O
11/28
-15
L
L
U
12/05
19
W
W
O
12/12
16
W
W
O
12/16
-6
L
L
O
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
11
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
U
11/14
-27
L
L
O
11/21
-19
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/05
-2
L
L
U
12/12
-39
L
L
O
12/20
2
W
L
U
12/26
4
W
W
U
01/02
3
W
W
U