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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ rams week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-1
23
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
80°F
5 mph
35
LARRams
2-0
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
80°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
7
7
3
23
Rams
14
1
14
0
29

Spread

LAR logo
-7

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
356
521
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
6.8
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.21
Passing Yards
215
350
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.45
Rushing Yards
141
171
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
33
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.37
-7.91
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-4
Sack EPA
-2.85
-1.46
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
127.5
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
Value
Ptile
11/12
2.5
70
11/19
2.8
72
11/23
11.8
99
12/03
4.9
84
12/10
3.0
74
12/16
-7.3
11
12/24
1.5
63
12/31
10.5
98
09/09
8.4
92
09/16
6.3
86
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
11/12
5.3
85
11/19
-1.0
45
11/26
0.9
59
12/03
1.0
60
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
12/24
5.6
87
01/06
-2.9
33
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Rams Defense
Chargers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
9
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
9
15
Rams Offense vs Chargers Defense
Rams logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
3
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
19
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/19
30
W
W
O
11/23
22
W
W
U
12/03
9
W
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/24
7
W
L
U
12/31
20
W
W
U
09/09
-10
L
L
O
09/16
11
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-17
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
16
W
W
O
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O
12/31
-21
L
L
O
01/06
-13
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U