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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ ravens week 6, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
15 mph
34
BALRavens
4-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
6
0
0
6
Ravens
7
10
10
7
34

Spread

BAL logo
-3

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
208
327
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
3.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.12
Passing Yards
182
140
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.13
Rushing Yards
26
187
Rush Attempts
12
38
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
14
27
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-8.97
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-27
Sack EPA
-3.49
-3.29
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
35
15
Penalty EPA
-3.74
-1.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+79.6
Base HFA
+42.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+22.7
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
111.3
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Value
Ptile
12/06
-10.4
3
12/13
2.3
61
12/17
6.1
84
12/27
0.7
50
01/03
6.1
84
09/12
0.8
59
09/19
0.8
59
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63
10/10
11.6
98
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
12/20
4.5
76
12/27
5.9
82
01/03
3.4
70
01/10
0.9
50
01/16
-6.1
10
09/13
2.4
71
09/19
7.5
92
09/26
-3.8
26
10/03
1.6
65
10/11
16.3
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chargers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
4
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2

EPA

EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
16
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
3
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Ravens logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
8
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
13
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-45
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/10
5
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
26
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
35
W
W
U
01/10
7
W
W
U
01/16
-14
L
L
U
09/13
-6
L
L
O
09/19
1
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O