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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ saints week 5, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
30
NOSaints
2-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
6
14
0
7
0
27
Saints
3
7
3
14
3
30

Spread

LAC logo
+7

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
350
408
Total Plays
69
75
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
239
313
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.01
Rushing Yards
111
95
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.57
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-12
Sack EPA
-5.77
-3.25
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-6.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+4.0
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
11/28
-2.1
37
12/08
16.0
100
12/16
12.1
99
12/22
3.2
73
12/29
4.1
79
01/05
0.0
52
09/13
-0.8
40
09/21
1.8
57
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Saints Defense
Chargers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3

EPA

EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
31
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Saints Offense vs Chargers Defense
Saints logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
6
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
5
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
-29
L
L
O
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
8
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
32
W
W
O
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/21
-10
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
6
W
W
O