LACChargers
1-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
2-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
6
14
0
7
0
27
Saints
3
7
3
14
3
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
408
Total Plays
69
75
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
239
313
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.01
Rushing Yards
111
95
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.57
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-12
Sack EPA
-5.77
-3.25
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+4.0
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Saints Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U