LACChargers
1-2
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
0-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
20
0
7
34
Texans
0
7
7
10
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
346
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
6.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.16
Passing Yards
338
215
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.25
Rushing Yards
81
131
Rush Attempts
27
14
Yards / Rush
3.0
9.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.23
-8.32
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-2
-31
Sack EPA
-0.90
-8.01
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
61
67
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-8.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-125.5
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
8
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
23
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
31
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
2-7-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U