LACChargers
8-6
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
041
HOUTexans
3-11
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
6
3
14
29
Texans
7
10
0
18
35
Spread
+13
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
437
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
7.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.30
Passing Yards
330
248
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.59
Rushing Yards
89
189
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
67%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.12
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.65
-1.79
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
49
70
Penalty EPA
-4.88
-6.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model81.6%
Spread Pick
Texans+13.0
Expected Value
+8.0%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-221
Home nfelo
1,334
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.1
Net QB Adjustment
-73.8
Home QB Adjustment
-51.6
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-258.4
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-51.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
32
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
30
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
27
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U