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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ texans week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
8-6
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
41
HOUTexans
3-11
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
6
3
14
29
Texans
7
10
0
18
35

Spread

HOU logo
+13

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
419
437
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
7.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.30
Passing Yards
330
248
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.59
Rushing Yards
89
189
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
67%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.12
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-1.65
-1.79
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
49
70
Penalty EPA
-4.88
-6.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.0%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-220
Home nfelo
1,333
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.1
Net QB Adjustment
-73.8
Home QB Adjustment
-51.6
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
-258.1
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
11.6
98
10/17
-3.9
24
10/31
-5.2
18
11/07
11.9
98
11/14
-2.6
34
11/21
13.7
99
11/28
0.9
60
12/05
6.5
89
12/12
5.6
86
12/16
2.3
69
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-51.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31

EPA

EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
16
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
32
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
30
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
27
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
27
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
5
W
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/14
-7
L
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
O
11/28
-15
L
L
U
12/05
19
W
W
O
12/12
16
W
W
O
12/16
-6
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-3
L
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O