LACChargers
5-3
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
5 mph
20
TENTitans
1-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
13
0
7
27
Titans
2
3
0
3
8
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
206
Total Plays
65
44
Yards / Play
5.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.22
Passing Yards
212
118
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.08
Rushing Yards
131
88
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
10
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.14
--
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-38
-27
Sack EPA
-7.57
-5.09
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.47
-6.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-210
Home nfelo
1,285
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+15.0
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.9
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
25
23
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
13
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U