KCChiefs
5-0
28
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
3 mph
18
SF49ers
3-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
0
14
28
49ers
3
3
6
6
18
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
310
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.15
Passing Yards
145
209
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.33
Rushing Yards
184
101
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
57%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.08
-13.35
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-3
Sack EPA
-2.68
-1.02
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,673
Home Field
+18.1
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
26.5
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
14
18
Fumbles / Game
5
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
21
31
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U