KCChiefs
4-7
10
TBD
Soldier Field
46°F
17 mph
3
CHIBears
7-4
TBD
Soldier Field
46°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
3
0
10
Bears
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
181
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
3.6
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.39
Passing Yards
139
88
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.90
Rushing Yards
113
93
Rush Attempts
37
24
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
11
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
35%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
20
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.04
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-18
-45
Sack EPA
-3.01
-9.74
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
60
35
Penalty EPA
-6.51
-3.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-94.5
Away QB Adjustment
-70.6
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Palko
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-70.6
Value
Ptile
C. Hanie
Proj. Value
-6.5
Team Elo Adj
-94.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U