KCChiefs
0-1
17
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
11 mph
35
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
3
14
17
Bills
7
14
8
0
29
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
379
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.21
Passing Yards
272
--
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
10/19(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.39
Rushing Yards
150
201
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.83
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-11.13
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
26
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bills
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U