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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ broncos week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-9
7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
6 mph
3
DENBroncos
8-7
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Broncos
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

KC logo
+2

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
281
266
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.7
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.12
Passing Yards
175
50
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
6/22(27%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
2.3
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.40
Rushing Yards
106
216
Rush Attempts
30
47
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
8
2
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
+0.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.23
-3.00
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
36
49
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-5.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-42.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+45.2
Market Regression
-22.9
Final Difference
8.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+45.2
Value
Ptile
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31
09/18
0.8
58
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
1.8
64
10/09
-7.0
10
12/18
4.1
77
12/24
0.1
53
T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58
11/17
2.4
69
11/27
-0.1
51
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-3.8
26
12/18
3.8
76
12/24
-8.1
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23

EPA

EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
31
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
26
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
28
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
U
11/06
-28
L
L
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/21
-31
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/18
5
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
O
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-18
L
L
O
12/24
-26
L
L
O