KCChiefs
6-9
7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
6 mph
3
DENBroncos
8-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Broncos
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
266
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.7
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.12
Passing Yards
175
50
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
6/22(27%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
2.3
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.40
Rushing Yards
106
216
Rush Attempts
30
47
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
8
2
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
+0.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.23
-3.00
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
36
49
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-5.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-42.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+45.2
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
6.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+45.2
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U