KCChiefs
11-5
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph
24
DENBroncos
7-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
3
7
5
22
Broncos
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
4
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
364
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
5.2
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.11
Passing Yards
255
173
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.15
Rushing Yards
137
191
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
18
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.14
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-2.25
-0.94
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-4.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-187
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,678
Home Field
+26.4
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+70.9
Final Difference
-150.0
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U