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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ broncos week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
11-5
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph
24
DENBroncos
7-9
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
3
7
5
22
Broncos
7
7
7
3
24

Spread

KC logo
DEN logo
4
P

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
392
364
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
5.2
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.11
Passing Yards
255
173
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.15
Rushing Yards
137
191
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
28
18
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.14
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-2.25
-0.94
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-6.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+26.3
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+70.7
Final Difference
-150.4
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
10/24
-6.4
13
11/01
-2.1
37
11/07
-3.1
31
11/14
13.3
99
11/21
-4.5
22
12/05
-3.1
30
12/12
2.2
69
12/16
9.3
95
12/26
5.9
87
01/02
6.6
90
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
11/08
2.7
65
11/15
-11.9
2
11/22
-0.8
39
12/06
-4.0
20
12/13
6.0
83
12/19
-2.1
28
12/27
-4.9
16
01/03
2.1
59
12/26
-4.9
20
01/02
1.5
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
5
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-24
L
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
U
11/07
6
W
L
U
11/14
27
W
W
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
39
W
W
O
12/16
6
W
W
O
12/26
26
W
W
O
01/02
-3
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-3
L
L
U
10/31
7
W
W
U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/28
15
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
28
W
W
O
12/19
-5
L
L
U
12/26
-4
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
O