KCChiefs
2-1
41
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
031
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
14
10
3
41
Buccaneers
3
14
7
7
31
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
376
Total Plays
77
59
Yards / Play
5.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
228
373
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
39/52(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.18
Rushing Yards
189
3
Rush Attempts
37
6
Yards / Rush
5.1
0.5
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
27
Passing 1st downs
17
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
71%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
12
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-11.82
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-12
Sack EPA
-2.51
-5.82
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
32
40
Penalty EPA
-3.47
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
6
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
32
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
24
2
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U