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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ buccaneers week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
9-1
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
5 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
7-4
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
3
7
0
27
Buccaneers
0
7
3
14
24

Spread

TB logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
56

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
543
417
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
7.5
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
456
342
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.18
Rushing Yards
87
75
Rush Attempts
20
13
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-9.36
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-6.63
-1.10
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
82
57
Penalty EPA
-9.32
-8.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,685
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
3.5
70
09/20
6.3
85
09/28
17.5
100
10/05
4.4
75
10/11
0.2
47
10/19
5.3
79
10/25
-3.6
21
11/01
13.8
99
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Chiefs logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
9
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Buccaneers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19

EPA

EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
21
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
15
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
14
W
W
O
09/20
3
W
L
U
09/28
14
W
W
U
10/05
16
W
W
U
10/11
-8
L
L
O
10/19
9
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
O
11/01
26
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/22
4
W
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O