KCChiefs
9-1
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
5 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
7-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
3
7
0
27
Buccaneers
0
7
3
14
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
543
417
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
7.5
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
456
342
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.18
Rushing Yards
87
75
Rush Attempts
20
13
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-9.36
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-6.63
-1.10
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
82
57
Penalty EPA
-9.32
-8.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
9
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
15
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U