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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ colts week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
4-2
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
14
INDColts
3-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
14
7
6
30
Colts
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
422
277
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.24
Passing Yards
334
172
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.26
Rushing Yards
88
105
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.61
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-16
-38
Sack EPA
-5.03
-8.66
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-0.47
-6.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-56.7
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13
09/25
1.7
61
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18
11/08
5.3
84
09/11
10.3
97
09/18
-5.8
12
09/25
0.6
54
10/02
-3.8
21
10/09
2.2
66
10/16
4.1
80
10/23
8.2
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
23
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27

EPA

EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
18
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
3
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U
09/25
21
W
W
U
10/02
-29
L
L
O
10/16
16
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
P
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
4
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/23
8
W
W
O