KCChiefs
4-2
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
014
INDColts
3-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
14
7
6
30
Colts
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
277
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.24
Passing Yards
334
172
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.26
Rushing Yards
88
105
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.61
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-16
-38
Sack EPA
-5.03
-8.66
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-0.47
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-56.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
23
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U