KCChiefs
2-3
31
TBD
FedExField
62°F
13 mph
13
WASCommanders
2-3
TBD
FedExField
62°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
3
7
14
31
Commanders
3
10
0
0
13
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
499
276
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
6.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.23
Passing Yards
390
--
Comp/Att
32/47(68%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.15
Rushing Yards
109
94
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
15
Passing 1st downs
21
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
65%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
11
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.60
-9.84
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-3.24
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
47
44
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-4.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-142
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-94.1
Home QB Adjustment
-78.0
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-78.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
22
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U