KCChiefs
1-2
42
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
8 mph
30
PHIEagles
1-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
14
7
14
42
Eagles
10
3
3
14
30
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
471
461
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
7.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.51
+0.25
Passing Yards
271
358
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.29
Rushing Yards
200
103
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.32
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
30
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
90%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.95
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.52
-4.06
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
46
49
Penalty EPA
-5.28
-7.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Eagles+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
-165.1
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
5
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
17
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U