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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ eagles week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-2
42
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
8 mph
30
PHIEagles
1-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
14
7
14
42
Eagles
10
3
3
14
30

Spread

KC logo
-7

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
471
461
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
7.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.51
+0.25
Passing Yards
271
358
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.29
Rushing Yards
200
103
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.32
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
31
30
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
90%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.95
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.52
-4.06
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
46
49
Penalty EPA
-5.28
-7.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-124
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+51.1
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
-20.1
Final Difference
-155.1
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
12/06
4.5
76
12/13
-0.4
43
12/20
2.6
64
12/27
-0.6
41
01/17
3.6
70
01/24
8.5
93
02/07
-6.8
9
09/12
9.2
95
09/19
8.2
93
09/26
2.6
73
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
12/13
6.2
85
12/20
4.0
73
12/27
-0.8
40
01/03
-5.3
15
09/12
8.9
95
09/19
2.3
70
09/27
0.6
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
5
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
17
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
3
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
8
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
6
W
L
O
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
L
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
01/17
5
W
L
U
01/24
14
W
W
O
02/07
-22
L
L
U
09/12
4
W
L
O
09/19
-1
L
L
O
09/26
-6
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
W
U
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-20
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/12
26
W
W
U
09/19
-6
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O