KCChiefs
17-2
22
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
040
PHIEagles
17-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
6
16
22
Eagles
7
11
10
6
34
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
345
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.11
Passing Yards
228
210
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.49
Rushing Yards
49
135
Rush Attempts
11
45
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.05
-2.51
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-11.81
-2.34
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
75
59
Penalty EPA
-9.96
+1.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model44.8%
Spread Pick
Eagles+1.5
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,708
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
-7.0
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
36.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U