nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ eagles week 22, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
17-2
22
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
40
PHIEagles
17-3
PHI logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
6
16
22
Eagles
7
11
10
6
34

Spread

PHI logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
279
345
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.11
Passing Yards
228
210
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.49
Rushing Yards
49
135
Rush Attempts
11
45
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.05
-2.51
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-11.81
-2.34
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
75
59
Penalty EPA
-9.96
+1.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model45.4%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,704
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
-6.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
32.1
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
Value
Ptile
11/10
1.0
56
11/17
-0.5
46
11/24
5.8
83
11/29
-3.7
24
12/08
-0.3
47
12/15
1.5
59
12/21
8.0
93
12/25
11.3
98
01/18
0.2
50
01/26
7.0
90
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
11/10
3.4
72
11/14
1.1
57
11/24
0.8
53
12/01
-0.5
46
12/08
1.9
62
12/15
8.5
94
12/22
-4.4
21
01/12
-0.4
46
01/19
-2.4
32
01/26
7.5
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
10
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-9
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/25
19
W
W
U
01/05
-38
L
L
U
01/18
9
W
L
U
01/26
3
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U
01/12
12
W
W
U
01/19
6
W
L
O
01/26
32
W
W
O