KCChiefs
0-2
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
5 mph
9
NYGGiants
0-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
6
7
6
22
Giants
0
6
0
3
9
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
281
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.15
Passing Yards
201
151
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.46
Rushing Yards
105
130
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
53%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.54
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-2.77
-2.75
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
85
82
Penalty EPA
-9.64
-7.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-138
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Giants Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U