KCChiefs
5-7
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph
37
NYJJets
7-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
0
7
10
Jets
7
21
7
0
35
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
314
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
3.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.23
Passing Yards
156
155
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.20
Rushing Yards
65
159
Rush Attempts
21
42
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
7
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.46
-3.40
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-39
-26
Sack EPA
-6.55
-7.60
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
128
--
Penalty EPA
-14.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
Jets-10.5
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+63.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-62.8
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
270.4
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
T. Palko
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.8
Value
Ptile
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
31
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
1-9
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U