KCChiefs
8-3
19
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
9 mph
27
GBPackers
5-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
6
7
19
Packers
7
7
7
6
27
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
382
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.30
Passing Yards
189
253
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.43
Rushing Yards
148
129
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.00
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-3.65
-1.51
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
63
Penalty EPA
--
-5.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+45.1
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
-138.4
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
30
Interceptions / Game
21
28
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U