KCChiefs
6-2
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
6 mph
17
CARPanthers
3-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
11
14
Panthers
3
14
0
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
341
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
4.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
167
242
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.06
Rushing Yards
91
99
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.81
-9.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-1.66
-3.33
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-4.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Panthers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
14
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U