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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ panthers week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-2
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
6 mph
17
CARPanthers
3-5
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
11
14
Panthers
3
14
0
0
17

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
258
341
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
4.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
167
242
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.06
Rushing Yards
91
99
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.81
-9.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-1.66
-3.33
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-4.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+68.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13
09/25
1.7
61
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
01/17
-0.5
48
01/24
10.6
97
02/07
-7.0
7
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Panthers Defense
Chiefs logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
12
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Panthers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Panthers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
14
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
11
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U
09/25
21
W
W
U
10/02
-29
L
L
O
10/16
16
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
P
U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
34
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U