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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ patriots week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
8-5
27
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph
17
NEPatriots
3-10
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
13
0
27
Patriots
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

NE logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
326
206
Total Plays
61
51
Yards / Play
5.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.46
Passing Yards
283
154
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.42
Rushing Yards
43
52
Rush Attempts
20
16
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.99
-6.37
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-26
Sack EPA
-5.67
-5.71
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-4.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market81.3%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
63.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+69.1
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-185.0
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
Value
Ptile
10/01
-1.0
44
10/08
4.1
76
10/12
3.4
72
10/22
13.4
99
10/29
-5.1
19
11/05
1.2
57
11/20
-0.0
48
11/26
6.0
86
12/03
-1.8
38
12/10
0.3
51
B. Zappe headshot

B. Zappe

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.8
39
10/16
4.3
83
12/03
-8.4
7
12/07
3.2
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3

EPA

EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
16
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17

EPA

EPA / Play
32
7
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
22
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
11
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
3
W
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/12
11
W
W
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-15
L
L
U
11/05
7
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/03
-8
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-35
L
L
U
10/08
-34
L
L
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
4
W
W
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
O