KCChiefs
8-5
27
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph
17
NEPatriots
3-10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
13
0
27
Patriots
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
206
Total Plays
61
51
Yards / Play
5.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.46
Passing Yards
283
154
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.42
Rushing Yards
43
52
Rush Attempts
20
16
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.99
-6.37
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-26
Sack EPA
-5.67
-5.71
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-4.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots+10.5
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
63.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-185.3
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
16
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
7
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U