KCChiefs
12-5
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
6 mph
27
NEPatriots
12-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
7
7
20
Patriots
7
7
7
6
27
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
340
Total Plays
83
56
Yards / Play
4.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.16
Passing Yards
243
--
Comp/Att
29/50(58%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.21
Rushing Yards
135
38
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
12
6
3rd Down Attempts
20
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-1.66
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
24
Penalty EPA
-3.94
-4.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+85.3
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
-0.6
Final Difference
123.2
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
1
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U