KCChiefs
7-3
31
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
017
OAKRaiders
5-6
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
10
31
Raiders
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
358
Total Plays
58
58
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.12
Passing Yards
291
235
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.10
Rushing Yards
69
123
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-13
Sack EPA
-1.92
-1.76
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-54.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
-212.2
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-54.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U