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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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How nfelo works

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  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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KC logo
KCChiefs
7-3
31
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
17
OAKRaiders
5-6
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
10
31
Raiders
7
7
3
0
17

Spread

KC logo
-9

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
360
358
Total Plays
58
58
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.12
Passing Yards
291
235
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.10
Rushing Yards
69
123
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-13
Sack EPA
-1.92
-1.76
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+32.7
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-45.7
Home QB Adjustment
-54.7
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
-211.8
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.2
57
09/17
4.8
80
09/24
8.3
95
10/01
-1.0
44
10/08
4.1
76
10/12
3.4
72
10/22
13.4
99
10/29
-5.1
19
11/05
1.2
57
11/20
-0.0
48
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-54.7
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11
11/05
-0.3
47
11/12
-5.0
20
11/19
-5.7
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
24
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-1
L
L
U
09/17
8
W
W
U
09/24
31
W
W
O
10/01
3
W
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/12
11
W
W
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-15
L
L
U
11/05
7
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-28
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-12
L
L
U
11/05
24
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/19
-7
L
W
U