KCChiefs
9-2
40
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph
33
OAKRaiders
2-9
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
9
14
7
40
Raiders
0
7
9
17
33
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
442
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
6.9
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
271
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.33
Rushing Yards
174
171
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.11
-15.30
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.24
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
94
74
Penalty EPA
-9.68
-8.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.6%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-379
Home nfelo
1,317
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
-13.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-49.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+38.7
Market Regression
+24.7
Final Difference
-340.3
Model Spread
+14.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+38.7
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U