nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
9-2
40
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph
33
OAKRaiders
2-9
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
9
14
7
40
Raiders
0
7
9
17
33

Spread

OAK logo
+14

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
469
442
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
6.9
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
271
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.33
Rushing Yards
174
171
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.11
-15.30
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.24
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
94
74
Penalty EPA
-9.68
-8.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model87.6%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-377
Home nfelo
1,315
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
-13.3
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-49.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+38.7
Market Regression
+25.2
Final Difference
-339.8
Model Spread
+14.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+38.7
Value
Ptile
09/16
14.8
99
09/23
4.4
76
10/01
5.1
80
10/07
0.5
50
10/14
6.2
86
10/21
9.8
95
10/28
6.1
85
11/04
7.1
90
11/11
1.7
60
11/19
10.2
96
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
09/16
7.1
90
09/23
-1.0
40
09/30
4.4
76
10/07
-0.2
44
10/14
-4.1
22
10/28
8.4
93
11/01
-8.1
8
11/11
-2.9
28
11/18
-1.8
34
11/25
-4.7
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30

EPA

EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
29
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
22
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
5
W
W
O
09/23
11
W
W
O
10/01
4
W
W
U
10/07
16
W
W
U
10/14
-3
L
W
O
10/21
35
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
L
P
11/04
16
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
L
U
11/19
-3
L
P
O
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-1
L
W
U
09/23
-8
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
10/14
-24
L
L
U
10/28
-14
L
L
O
11/01
-31
L
L
U
11/11
-14
L
L
U
11/18
2
W
W
O
11/25
-17
L
L
O