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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ ravens week 2, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-0
35
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph
36
BALRavens
0-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
7
14
0
29
Ravens
7
10
7
12
36

Spread

BAL logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
405
481
Total Plays
49
70
Yards / Play
8.3
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.04
Rushing Yards
62
251
Rush Attempts
18
41
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
22
31
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
18
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
6
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.53
-10.09
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.13
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
46
55
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-4.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-24.1
Final Difference
-18.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99
12/06
4.5
76
12/13
-0.4
43
12/20
2.6
64
12/27
-0.6
41
01/17
3.6
70
01/24
8.5
93
02/07
-6.8
9
09/12
9.2
95
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
11/15
4.6
76
11/22
-2.7
26
12/08
5.1
78
12/14
8.4
93
12/20
4.5
76
12/27
5.9
82
01/03
3.4
70
01/10
0.9
50
01/16
-6.1
10
09/13
2.4
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
5
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
31
RZ Efficiency
13
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
6
W
L
U
12/13
6
W
L
O
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
L
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
01/17
5
W
L
U
01/24
14
W
W
O
02/07
-22
L
L
U
09/12
4
W
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-6
L
L
O
12/02
-5
L
W
U
12/08
17
W
W
O
12/14
5
W
W
O
12/20
26
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
35
W
W
U
01/10
7
W
W
U
01/16
-14
L
L
U
09/13
-6
L
L
O