KCChiefs
1-0
35
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph
36
BALRavens
0-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
7
14
0
29
Ravens
7
10
7
12
36
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
481
Total Plays
49
70
Yards / Play
8.3
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.04
Rushing Yards
62
251
Rush Attempts
18
41
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
31
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
18
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
6
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.53
-10.09
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.13
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
46
55
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-4.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens+3.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-24.2
Final Difference
-17.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
31
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U