KCChiefs
13-6
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
7 mph
10
BALRavens
14-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
10
0
0
17
Ravens
7
0
0
3
10
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
336
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.14
Passing Yards
230
255
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.32
Rushing Yards
89
81
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.97
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-2.05
-10.90
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
95
Penalty EPA
--
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model60.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+4.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,698
Home Field
+37.9
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+47.8
Home QB Adjustment
+42.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
72.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+42.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
9
4
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
31
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U