KCChiefs
0-2
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
0-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
3
3
7
9
3
25
Saints
7
3
14
0
0
24
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
510
288
Total Plays
92
59
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
237
205
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.10
Rushing Yards
273
83
Rush Attempts
45
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
14
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
39%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.59
-5.04
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-11
-35
Sack EPA
-2.11
-5.89
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-4.15
-5.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
28
31
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U