KCChiefs
12-1
32
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
029
NOSaints
10-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
7
11
32
Saints
0
9
6
14
29
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
285
Total Plays
93
53
Yards / Play
4.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
234
225
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.11
Rushing Yards
179
60
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
34
15
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
50%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-4.19
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-8.27
-2.27
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
54
93
Penalty EPA
-6.79
-9.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model48.1%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,792
Away nfelo
1,659
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
13.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
3
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U