KCChiefs
11-3
31
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
8 mph
38
SEASeahawks
8-6
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
7
7
14
31
Seahawks
7
7
10
14
38
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
464
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
6.9
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
265
254
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.45
Rushing Yards
156
210
Rush Attempts
20
43
Yards / Rush
7.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
31
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.65
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-1.51
-4.63
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-11.58
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+98.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-35.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+37.3
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+37.3
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
2
9
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U