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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ titans week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-8
9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
8 mph
26
TENTitans
2-12
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
6
3
0
9
Titans
0
7
7
10
24

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
133
376
Total Plays
43
70
Yards / Play
3.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.04
Passing Yards
82
212
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.24
Rushing Yards
51
164
Rush Attempts
15
40
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
9
22
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
11%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-44
-16
Sack EPA
-5.69
-4.17
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
59
82
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-8.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,323
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+44.5
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+75.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-82.3
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
-103.9
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-82.3
Value
Ptile
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48
09/22
-2.1
34
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-4.5
20
10/27
0.3
51
11/03
-5.2
15
11/17
2.4
66
11/24
-3.3
26
C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
10/05
-6.6
9
10/12
-6.4
10
10/19
-2.3
35
10/26
-5.2
16
11/02
-6.4
11
11/16
1.9
63
11/23
3.8
76
11/30
-5.9
13
12/07
-3.0
29
12/14
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
17
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17

EPA

EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10

EPA

EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
28
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
32
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
20
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/12
13
W
W
U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-3
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
1
W
W
O
10/12
-10
L
L
U
10/19
-18
L
L
O
10/26
-24
L
L
O
11/02
-7
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-6
L
W
O
11/30
-22
L
L
U
12/07
2
W
W
O
12/14
-13
L
L
O