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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bengals week 8, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-5
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
9 mph
24
CINBengals
2-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
7
3
23
Bengals
3
7
7
1
18

Spread

IND logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
331
276
Total Plays
71
53
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.14
Passing Yards
216
218
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.10
Rushing Yards
115
58
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.24
-3.99
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-25
Sack EPA
-5.88
-4.06
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
45
54
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-3.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.5
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
+30.6
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Value
Ptile
12/11
-1.1
40
12/18
-2.4
31
12/24
-0.7
43
01/01
0.3
51
09/10
-15.7
0
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Colts logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
30
17
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Bengals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
28
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
11
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O