INDColts
2-5
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
9 mph
24
CINBengals
2-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
13
7
3
23
Bengals
3
7
7
1
18
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
276
Total Plays
71
53
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.14
Passing Yards
216
218
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.10
Rushing Yards
115
58
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.24
-3.99
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-25
Sack EPA
-5.88
-4.06
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
45
54
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-3.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.5
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
+30.6
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
17
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
11
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U