INDColts
-
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
75°F
6 mph
31
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
75°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
3
14
24
Broncos
3
21
0
7
31
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
361
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.12
Passing Yards
354
259
Comp/Att
35/53(66%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.36
Rushing Yards
54
102
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
20
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.88
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-4.22
-1.62
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
45
70
Penalty EPA
-5.93
-6.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
Broncos-8.0
Expected Value
+21.3%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+11.6
Final Difference
242.2
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
30
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U