INDColts
0-1
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
4 mph
34
DENBroncos
1-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
7
7
20
Broncos
3
10
3
6
22
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
402
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
3.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.06
Passing Yards
170
268
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.06
Rushing Yards
83
134
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
43%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.43
-6.68
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-13.27
-2.73
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
94
54
Penalty EPA
-9.30
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+98.7
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-60.5
Home QB Adjustment
-39.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
+28.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-39.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
30
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U