INDColts
1-2
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
09
DENBroncos
2-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
3
3
3
3
12
Broncos
3
3
3
0
0
9
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
375
Total Plays
73
71
Yards / Play
4.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.25
Passing Yards
200
250
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.33
Rushing Yards
106
125
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.59
-7.62
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-51
-24
Sack EPA
-10.19
-6.54
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
64
49
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+66.1
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+13.9
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
29
16
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U