INDColts
6-7
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
15 mph
31
DENBroncos
8-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
0
13
Broncos
0
7
3
15
25
Spread
-4
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
193
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
4.3
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.49
-0.26
Passing Yards
161
121
Comp/Att
17/38(45%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.45
Rushing Yards
149
72
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-26.33
-12.16
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-2.20
-2.09
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
69
58
Penalty EPA
-8.27
+6.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+48.1
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
-30.8
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
113.8
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
29
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U