INDColts
8-6
22
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
016
ARICardinals
10-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
3
7
20
Cardinals
6
0
7
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
378
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
220
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.09
Rushing Yards
126
133
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.58
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
--
85
Penalty EPA
--
-11.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
15
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U