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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ cardinals week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
8-6
22
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
16
ARICardinals
10-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
3
7
20
Cardinals
6
0
7
3
16

Spread

IND logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
346
378
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
220
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.09
Rushing Yards
126
133
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.58
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
--
85
Penalty EPA
--
-11.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
10/11
7.3
92
10/17
-2.2
36
10/24
2.7
73
10/31
-3.4
28
11/04
4.9
84
11/14
-4.9
20
11/21
0.2
54
11/28
0.5
56
12/05
-1.1
44
12/18
-5.3
18
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/19
8.9
95
09/26
4.4
81
10/03
5.4
85
10/10
-0.9
46
10/17
2.9
75
10/24
-1.4
43
10/28
-3.3
28
12/05
6.6
90
12/13
1.5
63
12/19
-5.3
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Colts logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21

EPA

EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
2
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
15
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Cardinals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
12
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
12
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/04
15
W
W
O
11/14
6
W
L
U
11/21
26
W
W
O
11/28
-7
L
L
O
12/05
31
W
W
U
12/18
10
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
7
W
W
U
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/24
26
W
W
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/07
14
W
W
O
11/14
-24
L
L
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
11
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U