INDColts
5-1
38
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
024
LACChargers
4-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
6
17
15
0
38
Chargers
3
0
14
7
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
445
Total Plays
59
74
Yards / Play
6.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.46
+0.11
Passing Yards
283
391
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
37/55(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.11
Rushing Yards
120
54
Rush Attempts
23
16
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.94
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.53
-5.38
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+48.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
9
4
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
5
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
9
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U