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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ chiefs week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-2
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
3 mph
13
KCChiefs
4-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
6
19
Chiefs
3
7
0
3
13

Spread

IND logo
+11

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
331
324
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
288
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.03
Rushing Yards
180
36
Rush Attempts
45
14
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-3.04
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
50
125
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-11.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+65.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+35.9
Home QB Adjustment
+30.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
11/26
-9.3
4
12/03
-4.3
23
12/10
-4.6
21
12/14
0.0
52
12/23
-1.6
41
12/31
-2.9
33
09/08
2.0
67
09/15
-1.7
41
09/22
6.0
86
09/29
0.9
60
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.5
Value
Ptile
12/09
3.4
71
12/13
3.4
72
12/23
5.8
84
12/30
1.0
53
01/12
0.2
48
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97
09/22
10.0
96
09/29
4.6
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
17
RZ Efficiency
3
10
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5

EPA

EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
7
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
14
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
10
RZ Efficiency
11
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
23
W
W
U
12/23
1
W
L
O
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-18
L
L
U
09/08
-6
L
P
O
09/15
2
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
3
W
L
O
12/13
-1
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
32
W
W
U
01/12
18
W
W
U
01/20
-6
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O