INDColts
2-2
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
3 mph
13
KCChiefs
4-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
0
6
19
Chiefs
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
324
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
288
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.03
Rushing Yards
180
36
Rush Attempts
45
14
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-3.04
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
50
125
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-11.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+240
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+64.8
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.8
Net QB Adjustment
+35.9
Home QB Adjustment
+30.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
17
RZ Efficiency
3
10
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
14
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
10
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U