INDColts
0-0
0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
024
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
0
0
Jaguars
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
218
331
Total Plays
48
67
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.10
Passing Yards
164
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
25/30(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.59
Rushing Yards
54
96
Rush Attempts
13
37
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.88
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-7.63
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
30
19
Penalty EPA
-2.67
-1.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
14
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
17
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U